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War Every Day (eIraq Blog)
A window on returnees

Noah Baker Merrill, Electronic Iraq

Feb 6, 2008

A short article today describes the demand from Iraqi government forces that all returnees to Baghdad be accompanied by them.

Reading between the lines, it's clear that despite the rosy pronouncements by those who say "the Surge" is working, there is a tenuous tenseness and a deep concern that the current relative calm could be easily broken.

Here's the article from Voice of Iraq.

A quick reminder that many of the displacements were in fact carried out by members of militias that have heavily infiltrated these same government forces -- often the people forcing residents from their Baghdad homes were wearing Iraqi army uniforms.

In other words, the message is: work with us, for our goals, and you might be alright. Otherwise, we or members of another group might have nothing to gain from you making it home safely.

Also, anecdotally (from conversations with Iraqi families in Syria and Jordan) I've heard that there have been several cases of families being escorted back to their homes "safely" by government forces, only to be killed at some point in the next week by unknown armed groups. These people, it is assumed, are counted as "successful returnees".

Context: The Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MoDM) in a recent report estimates that between 36,000 and 46,000 people had returned to Baghdad (though they also suggest that numbers could be much higher), or to their own neighborhood from another part of Baghdad, in recent months, out of a total internally-displaced and refugee population of between 4 and 4.5 million. MoDM says that 84% of those returning returned from displacement within Baghdad Governorate itself, and not from Syria or other countries, as some reports might suggest.

Finally, a recent UN report citing Syrian immigration officials says that the number of Iraqis fleeing to Syria from Iraq is once again higher than the number of Iraqis going home. Expiration of visas and lack of money continue to be the overwhelming reasons for return, rather than belief that the security situation has improved.

Read the AFP article here.